The Birthday Problem
+12
Silvan Arrow
Loki
Dax
Blackrock
Lara
Chainlinc3
wakeangel
Guilty Carrion
Gadreille
Bird of Hermes
MoiraofWords
SpaceWheeler2.0
16 posters
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The Birthday Problem
by SpaceWheeler2.0 Sun Aug 08, 2010 12:01 am
Okay, so probability theory says that any group of 23 people has a 50% chance that there is one pair of individuals that share a birthday. A group of 57 people has a 99% chance of a pair.
So, I need the first 23 people who look at this thread to simply post their birth date. If you don't feel like sharing with everyone, I'll at least need you to share with me in a PM. I promise that I will not tell! If we're lucky, maybe we can go further for a group of 57 or more, and see what happens...
Mine is: October 21st
So, I need the first 23 people who look at this thread to simply post their birth date. If you don't feel like sharing with everyone, I'll at least need you to share with me in a PM. I promise that I will not tell! If we're lucky, maybe we can go further for a group of 57 or more, and see what happens...
Mine is: October 21st
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Bird of Hermes- Wraith
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Re: The Birthday Problem
by Gadreille Sun Aug 08, 2010 12:03 am
October 12th
(my mother-in-law's birthday is October 21st!)
(my mother-in-law's birthday is October 21st!)
Gadreille- ★ Administrator ★
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Guilty Carrion- Poltergeist
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Re: The Birthday Problem
by wakeangel Sun Aug 08, 2010 9:23 am
September 21st! ~high fives Plague~ So close!
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Chainlinc3- Apparition
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Re: The Birthday Problem
by Guest Sun Aug 08, 2010 10:00 am
May 23rd.
(My stepmother's birthday is the 21st August.)
(My stepmother's birthday is the 21st August.)
Guest- Guest
Re: The Birthday Problem
by Lara Sun Aug 08, 2010 9:44 pm
October 10th!
(-brags about her birth date for this year in particular-)
(-brags about her birth date for this year in particular-)
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Blackrock- Apparition
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Re: The Birthday Problem
by Dax Mon Aug 09, 2010 12:59 pm
November 11th.
High five for everyone who has their birthday in November. November Rules
High five for everyone who has their birthday in November. November Rules
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Re: The Birthday Problem
by Loki Mon Aug 09, 2010 2:38 pm
TimeOfTheEye wrote:August 21st.
August 21st for me too!
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Re: The Birthday Problem
by Chainlinc3 Mon Aug 09, 2010 3:56 pm
An alternative conclusion: more babies are born on the 21st of all months. We had 4 21st birthdays just in this sample. 
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Re: The Birthday Problem
by Dax Mon Aug 09, 2010 5:47 pm
To further add to what Chainlic3 said, I also think the 21st is magical. There are more posts on the 21st on FoG than on any other day!
That is if memory serves correctly. Just don't quote me on that.
That is if memory serves correctly. Just don't quote me on that.
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Re: The Birthday Problem
by MoiraofWords Mon Aug 09, 2010 5:50 pm
That just may be the reason for so many birthdays matching up. They are all 21's :O. Hmm.
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Re: The Birthday Problem
by SpaceWheeler2.0 Tue Aug 10, 2010 12:41 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem
So, I wasn't going to check the mathematics (too lazy this morning), but I estimated from the graph that getting a match in a group of 14 people is about 20%, and we needed 14 people to find a match.
Now, I've taken classes on research and statistics for my Psychology degree, so I'm not going to say we can make any sort of conclusions. All we can say is that we had a match. A group of 14 people is hardly enough evidence to suggest that more people have birthdays on the 21st.
So, I wasn't going to check the mathematics (too lazy this morning), but I estimated from the graph that getting a match in a group of 14 people is about 20%, and we needed 14 people to find a match.
Now, I've taken classes on research and statistics for my Psychology degree, so I'm not going to say we can make any sort of conclusions. All we can say is that we had a match. A group of 14 people is hardly enough evidence to suggest that more people have birthdays on the 21st.
SpaceWheeler2.0- Shadow
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Re: The Birthday Problem
by Blackrock Tue Aug 10, 2010 1:48 pm
I'm not too big on statistics, but making conclusions sounds pretty moot to me. Already, this forum represents a certain group of people, with similar interests. This isn't random, it's already been selected. So the most we'll get out is how many fledgling authors have birthdays on the same date.
Or I could just be spewing crap, /shrug.
Or I could just be spewing crap, /shrug.
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Re: The Birthday Problem
by Silvan Arrow Tue Aug 10, 2010 1:56 pm
My birthday is January 6th. I guess I'm breaking the 21st mold?
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Re: The Birthday Problem
by Sunwolf007 Tue Aug 10, 2010 3:44 pm
Beware the ides of ... August?
Wait that can't be right. [looks at birth certificate] Yep 15th of August right in the ides of August. So yeah. Beware!
Wait that can't be right. [looks at birth certificate] Yep 15th of August right in the ides of August. So yeah. Beware!
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Re: The Birthday Problem
by Kalon Ordona II Fri Jan 14, 2011 5:32 am
Mine is November 3rd.
A match!!
Chainlinc3! Woot! xD
A match!!
Chainlinc3! Woot! xD
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Re: The Birthday Problem
by xraineyesx Sat Jan 15, 2011 11:28 am
December 3.
This is really interesting.
This is really interesting.
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